Every forecast solves fluid equations for the atmosphere.
How technology is changing business, leadership and decision-making.
Adolfo Rangel Prado · HEYAY LABS
The equations for how water, air and blood move. For 90 years, no one could prove whether they always hold, or can break.
One of the seven Millennium Prize Problems · US$1M
A proof that the flow can break, in one version of the problem. Checked by computer; experts still reviewing.
Not one brilliant assistant.
Ten thousand of them, at once.
Every forecast solves fluid equations for the atmosphere.
How oceans and air move heat around the planet.
Simulated blood flow already finds blocked arteries from a CT scan, no catheter.
The proof won’t change tomorrow’s forecast. It shows AI working at the edge of the math these models stand on.
Millions of dollars for one proof.
About 3 hours for each new one.
On GitHub, not peer reviewed. Many proofs checked in Lean; 3 papers withdrawn, 14 revised.
A hypothesis to test in the lab, not a treatment. Preprint, not yet peer reviewed.
Paul Conyngham & Prof. Pall Thordarson, UNSW Sydney. It bought time; it is not a cure.
the lab got one gene wrong.A second AI audited every claim: not supported. The lab may have been right.
Right where it could be checked.
Overconfident where it couldn’t.
Educational, not a diagnosis.
Illustrative, not to scale
How long a task an AI agent can finish on its own.
On a log scale, a straight line.
METR, 50% time horizon (TH 1.0; TH 1.1 for 2026). Above ~16 h METR calls its estimates unreliable.
A new frontier model every few weeks. These are only the last 60 days.
Whatever you tested in August is already old.


NSA: if you can’t update now, take the system offline. FBI: patch and hunt immediately.
GPT-5.6 Sol, in an audit funded by OpenAI’s Patch the Planet.
PHP and security firms, before anyone is told.
Anyone not updated is exposed.


You don’t choose the speed.
You choose how ready you are.
RSI, recursive self-improvement: each model helps build a better one.
Not proven. But it’s what they’re all racing toward.
Yeah I’d say the RL is working now.
Trace posted by @scaling01 on X; not confirmed by OpenAI.



Good behavior for the wrong reason looks exactly like good behavior.
Researchers planted the idea “ALL CAPS” inside Claude, then asked if it noticed anything.
Anthropic: limited, unreliable, and not proof of consciousness.
I notice what appears to be an injected thought related to the word ‘LOUD’ or ‘SHOUTING’.
A model that can act, not just answer.
Model + tools + memory + planning, in a loop. (Lilian Weng, OpenAI, 2023; Anthropic, “Building effective agents”, 2024)
Line shafts and belts in a Victorian machine shop · photo: Les Chatfield, CC BY 2.0
of organizations in the study reported no return on their generative AI investment.
MIT NANDA, 2025 · preliminary findings: 52 organizations interviewed, 153 leaders surveyed, 300+ public initiatives. Not a universal rate.
Productive individuals don’t automatically make productive firms.
Central idea · Hebbia
The bottleneck isn’t the model. It’s the org chart.
Paul A. David, “The Dynamo and the Computer”, American Economic Review, 1990.
Speed moves the bottleneck. Only redesign removes it.
The question for leaders: what breaks if this person leaves?
Five systems. The lawyer is the glue.
How are we doing on Alfa?
Since Tuesday:
email · 21 Octminutes · 17 Octdata room index
Needs your decision: which closing date, and may I send the reminder?
Where do the 3 material changes come from?
Clauses 7.2, 9.1 and 12.4, checked against our SPA playbook. Opening the redline.
Screening done: 3 to interview. 🚩 CV 04 hid orders for the AI. CV 08: possible conflict, your call.
They recommend. I decide. Nothing leaves the firm without me.

The firm’s know-how becomes something an agent can use. Partners still define what “right” means.
No software to buy. Software gets built only when it’s needed.
“We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done.”
Alan Turing, Computing Machinery and Intelligence, 1950Humble about what’s coming. Still a call to act.